What went wrong: Sébastien Haller
Why was he unable to replicate the form shown for Eintracht Frankfurt?
Hello and welcome back to Marginal Pains. For the first time this year, we’re going to do a deep dive on why a transfer didn’t work out as expected. We’ve covered off Kai Havertz, Philippe Coutinho and Naby Keita, but today we’re focusing on the player who inspired this entire series; Sébastien Haller.
It was a conversation with Andy Wales on Twitter about the 26-year-old forward which resulted in this series.
It’s convenient timing, too, with the Frenchman linked with a £25million move to Ajax, just 18 months after West Ham parted with £40million to secure his services.
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Heading into the summer of 2019, Eintracht Frankfurt had one of the most in-demand attacking units in world football. Luka Jović and Ante Rebić had been in fine form alongside Haller in Adi Hütter’s 3-4-1-2 system and the trio were being courted by Europe’s elite. Die Adler had finished seventh in the Bundesliga and reached the semi-finals of the Europa League, beating Inter, Shakhtar and Benfica along the way before losing to Chelsea on penalties.
The front three netted over 50 goals between them with Haller responsible for 35%. He’d also chipped in with ten assists, involving himself in 34 goals in 41 appearances. Jovic appeared to steal most of the spotlight, but there was clear interest in the former Utrecht forward, perhaps due to his unique profile.
There was a misconception that the 6ft3 forward was a target man who was there as a support act to the smaller, more nimble attackers. However, during his two years in Germany, Haller attempted almost three dribbles on a per 90 basis. For a little context, Diogo Jota has averaged 3.5 since his move to Liverpool. You’d also regularly find him popping up in wide areas, beating a man and putting in crosses.
He was an all-rounder who thrived playing as the link between midfield and attack. Hütter was afraid to utilise his No.9’s height, but he wasn’t reliant on it. He knew Haller was better on the ball than people realised and it’s why he made sure he was properly supported.
It was very much an interchangeable front three and they were joined by runners from midfield.
In the screenshot above, Haller is just about to bring down a long ball from the right-sided centre-back. Either side of him, he has runners who have a lot of space to exploit. It looks particularly easy but rehearsed moves tend to look straightforward.
Augsburg can’t step up as they’d leave too much space in behind and the supporting cast wouldn’t be offside due to their starting positions. The issue they have is that they can’t be too passive with Haller as he’s got the ability to bring it down and pick a pass if unopposed.
They end up in limbo, allowing the Frenchman to chest the ball down and quickly play the ball to the player on his right. Frankfurt take the lead inside 50 seconds.
That was what he was brilliant at during his time in the Bundesliga, but he was only able to do that because Hütter ensured the team allowed him to play to his strengths. You know that goal was one straight from the training pitch.
All of his best moments for Frankfurt tend to be when he's able to act as a playmaker of sorts. He naturally draws players towards him and then team-mates attack the space, allowing him to thread passes through to them.
He was never a high volume player. He averaged just 1.6 shots and 3.34 touches in the box. Neither stat screams prolific goalscorer. In fact, his expected goals (xG) average was 0.38 - extrapolate that average over a 38 game season and you’re looking at 14 goals.
What made Haller such an intriguing prospect was the fact his expected assists (xA) average was 0.20. We’re talking Roberto Firmino levels of chance creation from the No.9. He overperformed these metrics in Germany, too, while playing for a mid-table team. If he managed to repeat that in the Premier League, you’d be looking at a striker with 25 goals involvements.
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That was probably the hope when West Ham signed him for a club-record fee.
When you look at his numbers over the past two seasons, the averages aren’t too dissimilar to the ones he posted prior to the move. He’s managing 3.39 touches in the box and 1.68 shots. One thing to note is that Haller is averaging twice as many headed shots. His xG is 0.31, so not far off his Eintracht average. His xA, however, is down at 0.07.
The latter stat is heavily linked to the Hammers never really playing to his strengths though. He often started as a sole centre-forward and he was tasked with being more of a traditional target man, attempting 14.05 aerial duels per 90 as opposed to the 11.95 he averaged in Germany.
That difference may seem minimal, but over an entire season it’s an extra 80 aerial duels. His dribble numbers halved after the move and his passing accuracy improved, despite him attempting fewer passes. To fit the West Ham system, he removed some of the risk to his game and this impacted his creative ability.
Without that aspect, you’re left with a striker who was never, by definition, prolific, often isolated as a lone No.9 in a new system and a new league.
It was never going to be the perfect storm for him.
Whereas a confident Haller outperformed his underlying metrics, the West Ham version didn’t. He’s expected to replicate his Eintracht Frankfurt performances while playing in a different role. It was always going to be difficult for him to live up to the price-tag unless the Hammers shaped their attack around him. They never, but perhaps Ajax will.
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