What went wrong: Naby Keita
Why hasn't the Liverpool No.8 been able to recapture his RB Leipzig form?
Welcome back to Marginal Pains.
Today we’re introducing something new. I posted an old article on Twitter explaining why Joelinton had flattered to deceive following his big-money move to Newcastle United. Andy Wales asked if I’d be able to do one on Sebastien Haller and then another request was made for one on Luka Jovic.
After a chat with Dave, we decided to turn it into a series. Jovic and Haller will have their own features over the next few weeks, but I wanted to start with a player a little closer to home.
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If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably guessed that I’m a Naby Keita fan. His numbers caught my eye during his time with Red Bull Salzburg, but I don’t watch the Austrian League so I wasn’t overly familiar with him as a player. He moved to RB Leipzig ahead of their first season in the Bundesliga. It was also during that summer that they signed Timo Werner.
I was intrigued by the project at the Red Bull Arena and the addition of these highly-rated youngsters only piqued my interest. Ralph Hasenhuttl’s 4-4-2 system fascinated me, too. BT Sport made a big push around that time making it fairly easy to catch Die Roten Bullen matches.
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Werner was the surprise package of the season having transitioned from wide player to centre-forward, but Keita was the reason I’d make time to watch them. The best way to describe him would be as a one-man midfielder.
One minute he’d be harassing the opposition, the next he’d be slaloming past players and into the final third. He was a destroyer and a creator. His high-energy style made him the perfect fit for Hasenhuttl’s counter-pressing side.
Keita wasn’t, and still isn’t, explosively quick, but when he got going, it was as if he was gliding over the ground.
He’d drag opponents out of position and this would open up space for Werner, Marcel Sabitzer, Emil Forsberg and Yussuf Poulsen. He thrived in the chaos he created.
At the same time, Liverpool were struggling to break down those low defensive blocks. The Reds had improved after adding Gini Wijnaldum to their ranks and converting Adam Lallana into a centre-midfielder. Jurgen Klopp’s side would often huff and puff, but they didn’t have the guile in that part of the pitch to unlock those teams with a rigid defence.
They finished that campaign in fourth spot with 76 points despite drawing ten games in the Premier League. It was clear that there was work to be done if they wanted to be title challengers and reports emerged in around March linking them with the RB Leipzig dynamo.
It ended up being the very definition of a transfer saga, with some supporters even threatening to boycott Red Bull. Seriously.
He eventually signed for Liverpool, but the deal struck meant he stayed in Germany for another season. Fast forward 12 months and he’s in possession of the No.8 jersey and he’s impressed in his early outings for the Reds. Most fans probably remember that turn and ball over the top against Crystal Palace.
Keita is now into his third season as a Liverpool player. He’s yet to appear in 50 Premier League matches having been plagued by various injuries. This is one of the main reasons the 25-year-old is such a divisive player. It’s also why he’s the first feature of this series.
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Liverpool supporters are yet to see the all-action RB Leipzig version. Numbers alone paint a picture of a player who is failing to reach the soaring heights of his Bundesliga debut campaign. However, stats without context are pretty useless.
During his two seasons in Germany, Keita attempted 6.5 dribbles and completed around 55%. He was given the license to do that because a key part of Hasenhuttl’s system was to create transitional situations. RBL attacked in numbers and Keita chipped in with goals, 0.26 per 90 to be exact. He was a genuine threat, averaging 0.22 expected goals to go alongside his 0.19 expected assists.
Keita attempted 49 passes per 90 and he found a team-mate 82% of the time. Of those passes, 19 went forward, 8.4 were played into the final third and 3.5 made their way into the penalty area.
Defensively, he was racking up tackles and assists due to the frenetic, and often chaotic, style of play. During his first season in Germany, RBL limited the opposition to the fewest number of passes per defensive action (PPDA) and this figure was 8.67, per Wyscout.
On paper, he was perfect for the 2016/17 iteration of Liverpool. Klopp’s side would look to suffocate their opponents and the former BVB tactician was quoted as saying gegenpressing was the best playmaker. Opponents managed just 8.23 PPDA and the Reds would look to overload central areas.
Had Keita arrived during the summer he signed, it might’ve been different for him. During the 2017/18 season, though, Liverpool tweaked their system and their style.
Trent Alexander-Arnold emerged and Andrew Robertson replaced Alberto Moreno. Oh, the club signed a certain Mohamed Salah, too. Klopp and his coaching staff went about easing their reliance on gegenpressing and started to control matches a little more. Previously, the opposition would dictate the space and allow Liverpool to have the ball. With their new approach, the Reds dominated the ball and the space.
The midfielders went from goal threats to auxiliary full-backs, allowing Alexander-Arnold and Robertson to be the main creative outlets on either flank. Liverpool’s PPDA average went to 9.51 in 2017/18.
The need for a spark from central areas kind of diminished. It explains why, since the move to Anfield, Keita’s attempted dribbles dropped to 3.21. With Liverpool building in wide areas, their No.8 has seen his expected assists average drop to 0.12. He’s seeing much more of the ball (62 passes per 90) and he’s taking fewer risks with it, completing over 90% of his attempted passes in the Premier League.
While playing for RBL, 39% of his passes went forward, for Liverpool that figure is 27%. Keita isn’t a worse player, he’s just carrying out the tactical instructions. The Premier League champions like to keep the ball and drag the opposition from side-to-side before carving out an opportunity. It’s all about patience and the former FC Istres youngster has shown that he can do that.
The biggest difference, though, might be the league he’s now playing in. In the Bundesliga, teams aren’t as passive as they are in the Premier League. They’ll attack and leave space.
It was in these situations that Keita thrived. In England, however, teams are reluctant to commit bodies forward to get at Liverpool. You rarely see opportunities like the one in the gif above because teams know that they’re up against one of the best counter-attacking teams in the world.
The 2017/18 campaign changed everything. People often view change as a negative thing, but it isn’t. The change in system helped Liverpool win the Champions League and the Premier League. The change helped Keita add an extra layer to his game to make him a more well-rounded player. Injuries have robbed him of his chance to really make a statement at Anfield, but he’s still part of arguably the club’s best ever squad.
The idea of this series is to flag what went wrong for a player after a move, in Keita’s case, not much. He just wasn’t fortunate enough to have a lot of things go right for him.
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