Suitable successors to each of Liverpool's front three
Which players could the Reds target this summer?
Hello, as a special treat, I’ve roped Dave into helping me with this piece for our first real collaborative effort.
We’re focusing on the Liverpool today, specifically their attack and what could well be the next stage of their evolution.
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For the first time in a long time, Liverpool are being properly scrutinised.
The Reds have failed to win in the Premier League since their 7-0 demolition of Crystal Palace in mid-December. They’re without a goal in 350 minutes and find themselves four points behind Leicester Cty, the current league leaders.
A lot of the criticism is knee jerk.
In a way, it’s understandable. Jurgen Klopp’s team had been near perfect for two years, winning 62 of their 78 Premier League games during the 2018/19 and 2019/20 campaigns. They were averaging 2.57 points per 90. This season, that figure stands at 1.88. On a per 90 basis, that may seem minimal but over 38 games, that is a difference of 31 points.
Initially, everyone was worried about the loss of Virgil van Dijk. Then Joe Gomez suffered a season-ending injury and Joel Matip has been a frequent visitor to the treatment room. The fear was that the defence would cost Liverpool the title. However, Fabinho’s filled in exceptionally well at centre-back and Jordan Henderson has done a decent enough job against Southampton and Manchester United.
Having to use key midfielders at centre-back has damaged the team going forward and it’s actually the attack that is letting the team down right now. In the recent episode of Monday Night Football, Jamie Carragher looked at the Liverpool front three.
For work, I had a look at what had changed for the front three since Boxing Day. The surface numbers all looked normal, but then I looked at individuals and things seemed a little clearer. In a nutshell, Roberto Firmino is taking more shots than Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane. The Brazilian is the only one of the front three whose post-shot xG numbers are down on his xG numbers. Bluntly speaking, he’s the worst finisher, yet he’s getting more of the opportunities. It’s not the ideal combination.
I had a theory as to why and I discussed it with a few people. By discussing it, I mean I sent a barrage of messages to Dave.
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Thiago is like no other midfielder in the Liverpool squad. Not only does he play incisive passes between the lines, but he’s also very comfortable at carrying the ball forward. Previously, the midfielders would look to go wide, Firmino would drop off to offer himself and to create space for Mane and Salah. Now, though, with their new No.6, the Reds aren’t always looking to play it wide. They don’t need Firmino to drop as much and he’s almost being forced to stay higher up the pitch.
When you think about it, it makes sense. He’s no longer having to be a false-nine and chances are falling his way. However, as previously mentioned, he isn’t the best finisher. Granted, the sample size isn’t the largest, but this was always inevitable. Thiago was going to change how Liverpool played. This might be, along with the injuries, why Klopp has been trying out different systems this season.
Redesign, rebuild and reclaim
This is going to change how the front three, or four, operate, and there’s no escaping that. If Thiago is going to be a key part of the team moving forward, the Premier League champions need a proper No.9.
Their success over recent seasons has been built around all three being a threat. They’ve plundered 183 goals between them since Salah’s arrival and their goals in the Champions League helped the Reds to consecutive finals. Their performances as a trio resulted in Pep Guardiola being caught on camera saying: “Those three up front. They scare me. They are dangerous.”
Between 2017/18 and 2019/20, the front three averaged around nine shots per 90. Salah was the dominant one, averaging around four of those while Mane and Firmino split what was remaining.
The Liverpool No.11 relies on volume to be at his very best. Replacing what he does was always going to be difficult. We’re also getting a look at what potentially happens to his output if a proper No.9 is part of the attack. This is what people often overlook when they talk about adding an Erling Haaland to this team. The shots have to come from somewhere and either Haaland takes fewer or Salah does, for example. Firmino’s taking more and Salah’s having fewer.
It was also going to be an almost impossible task to find another Firmino. A selfless attacker who can chip in with a big goal. If the Reds change their set-up, things get a little easier.
If ensuring Salah has as close to four shots per 90 as possible isn’t the objective, the pool of potential players for the rebuild isn’t quite as small. With this in mind, I asked Dave to look at players Liverpool could sign for the left side of the attack given he flagged Diogo Jota as an ideal signing on an Analysing Anfield episode. I thought I’d take a look at possible centre-forwards and right-sided attackers.
Centre-forward
This guy is going to be your main goal threat. Like with all attackers signed by the Reds, their output and averages need to be scalable. You want a forward who is used to taking circa three shots per 90 and has an xG average of around 0.4. You don’t want a player at the peak of their powers because it means you need the perfect environment for them to replicate that form.
Haaland would be the dream, but it’s unlikely. There are alternatives, though, who could thrive under Klopp. One such player is one we covered in our ones to watch series; Dusan Vlahovic. He might appear to be underwhelming, but Liverpool have a lot of success when developing players who are overlooked by the masses. The Fiorentina man has a lot of potential and there are already plenty of positives to his game.
Another one on the list could be Luka Jovic. He’s now back at Eintracht Frankfurt and he netted twice on his debut. His time at Real Madrid has been disappointing, but that happens. Zinedine Zidane favours Karim Benzema and if reports are to be believed, they’re in for Haaland. They might be willing to cash in on Jovic and Liverpool love a good undervalued asset.
During his two full seasons in the Bundesliga, the 23-year-old averaged 3.5 shots and had an xG of 0.7. His shot map, courtesy of Understat.com, shows he takes very few shots from outside of the area and that he gets into high-quality areas.
One thing to note is that his success arrived when he was playing primarily in a two. Frankfurt often played on the break, too. That wouldn’t be the case at Anfield, but what is transferable is his finishing ability. He makes the most of his opportunities and any No.9 for Liverpool moving forward will have to have that trait.
Right-winger
If your centre-forward is the main source of goals, your wide forwards can be a little more creative. Previously, I’ve ruled out players because they’ve failed to get anywhere near the averages posted by Salah and Mane prior to their moves to Merseyside.
It’s why I wasn’t 100% sold on Pedro Neto just yet.
The Wolves man has really caught the eye this season, but his average are significantly down in areas that are considered important for a Liverpool forward. His xG of 0.19 is nearly half of what Salah and Mane averaged for Roma and Southampton respectively. It was hard to look past that, purely because the wide players are the goalscorers in Klopp’s latest system.
If that isn’t a necessity, Neto climbs the list. He’s a ball carrier and since his move to England, he ranks in the top ten for dribbles attempted and top five for progressive runs. He’s also something of a creative outlet and his expected assists (xA) per 90 average of 0.25 can only be bettered by 13 players. He’s a goal threat, too. Not in the same league as Salah, but the expectations and the requirements would be different, especially with a new No.9. Neto has experience playing with a traditional centre-forward, having worked well alongside Raul Jimenez.
Another name on the list could be Ajax forward Antony. He, too, has experience playing on the right of a more traditional centre-forward, so he’s already got that box ticked. His sample size isn’t the largest, just a little over 1,000 minutes in the Eredivisie, but he profiles really well.
An aggressive ball carrier with north of eight dribbles, he also average over five touches in the opposition’s box on a per 90 basis. The 20-year-old Brazilian has a combined xG+xA90 average of 0.73 this season and the £18million Ajax paid for him is looking more and more like a bargain.
Left-winger
It can’t be forgotten that Jota could well be Mane’s long term heir on the left of Liverpool’s attack. However, his capacity to play a multitude of attacking roles may mean that he remains Klopp's attacking utility man, used where he is needed rather than being assigned a set position on the pitch.
A more natural successor then could be Bayer Leverkusen’s Leon Bailey.
After joining Leverkusen from Genk in January of 2017, Bailey hit the ground running and quickly established himself as one of the Bundesliga’s rising stars.
His quick feet, lightning pace and ability to both score goals and create chances quickly saw him attracting interest from the likes of Manchester City, although thankfully from a Liverpool perspective, no move materialised and interest cooled.
Injuries slowed him down for a short while thereafter, but the 23-year-old now seems to be back to his best and he’s performing very impressively this season.
Like others mentioned, Bailey is versatile, able to perform on either flank or through the middle without any real drop off in performance level.
For Peter Bosz’s men this season, he’s already registered an impressive 14 goal contributions - nine goals, four assists. For comparison, that’s one more than revered Dortmund star Jadon Sancho so far.
The two met on Tuesday night and it was Bailey’s below exquisite ball over the top for Moussa Diaby that opened the scoring in his side’s 2-1 victory.
In terms of a direct comparison with Mane, both share eerily similar numbers in two key attacking areas this season, with Bailey’s average of 7.32 attempted dribbles and 2.37 shots per 90 pretty much mirroring Mane’s of 7.82 and 2.71 - although notably, Bailey is five years the Senegal stars junior.
Another rising star who could also attract the attention of the Reds’ recruitment team is Nice forward Amine Gouiri.
The former Lyon man swapped Les Gones for the French Riviera in the summer in pursuit of more minutes on the pitch, and he’s quickly become one of the division’s budding stars. Like Liverpool’s No.10, the French U21 international tends to feature predominantly on the left, aiding his favour to cut in onto his favoured right foot.
At 20-years-old, he’s not as refined as Mane, and probably even less so than Bailey, too. Therefore further development is needed and this might be one of the reasons why he’s currently -2.24 against his league xG this season (6 vs 8.24). However, throw in his goals in the Europa League and he’s netted a total of ten from an xG of 10.32 - an on-par return.
That combined goal return is even more impressive when you consider he’s also secured three assists and accumulated an xA of 2.75. Mane, coincidentally, has also registered three assists this season with an accumulated xA of 2.99.
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nice writing. thanks mate
Brilliant article Marginal Pains