Ones to watch: Dusan Vlahovic
The 20-year-old Fiorentina striker has the potential to be one of the best forwards in Europe
Hello, it’s Sam and I’m back again with the latest in our ones to watch series.
Previously, we’ve covered Curtis Jones and Charlie McNeil, this time around we’re heading to Italy to focus on a centre-forward currently being overlooked, despite posting impressive numbers.
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At various stages of their careers, Gabriel Batistuta, Roberto Baggio, Enrico Chiesa, Roberto Baggio, Luca Toni and Alberto Gilardino all called the Stadio Artemio Franchi home. Some of the best strikers in Serie A history have turned out for Fiorentina.
Another could be set to join the list in the near future.
It is perhaps a little premature given Dušan Vlahović has just 56 Serie A appearances to his name, but the 20-year-old is a player with the potential to really make a name for himself over the next decade.
The 2019/20 campaign was his breakthrough year and he finished with six goals in 30 appearances. Federico Chiesa was the franchise player for the Viola, and all eyes tended to be on him, but he’s now plying his trade in Turin with Juventus. Gaetano Castrovilli is now the club’s most in-demand player, with a host of Premier League and Serie A clubs reportedly keen on the 23-year-old. This has allowed Vlahović to go somewhat under the radar. The Serbia international has already equalled his tally for last season in just 16 appearances.
When analysing youngsters, though, you have to look beyond the headline figures.
His 46 appearances since the start of last season can’t be bettered by any forward aged 22 or under. That shows durability and reliability, two traits often overlooked when judging players. In fact, only Victor Osimhen (2,931) has racked up more minutes on the pitch during this period.
Vlahović also ranks within the top five for expected goals (xG) per 90, with 0.48. That average can only be bettered by Erling Haaland (0.71), Kylian Mbappe (0.68) and Osimhen (0.52), highlighting the fact he’s in good company.
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Sometimes, when a player is described as reliable, it’s viewed as a bit of a negative. Occasionally, it is a way to praise those who can be perceived as boring. However, in Vlahović’s case, it’s nothing but a positive. He’s reliable, both in terms of availability and as a goal threat.
It is worth noting here that the former Red Star youngster has been taking penalties, but that shouldn’t take anything away from him. His shot map, courtesy of understat.com, shows he’s regularly getting into good areas for a team that doesbn’t necessarily create much.
Since the start of last season, Fiorentina rank 13th for xG in Serie A, per WyScout. He’s not a high volume forward, averaging just 2.89 shots and 4.7 touches in the opposition box per 90. Both of these metrics are scaleable, one of the most important things when profiling attackers.
The worst move to make is signing an attacker at the top end of most metrics. Unless you then build an attack around them, their numbers will likely drop off. As Liverpool have shown over recent years, the right system can turn good players into great ones. For that to work, you need consistent numbers which, in a better team, will likely increase.
What is encouraging to see from Vlahović is the variety in his goals. Against Juventus, he latched on to a through ball and left Matthijs de Ligt in his wake. His touch was heavy, but he composed himself enough to nonchalantly loft the ball over the goalkeeper. Give him space and he’s capable of that. Against teams that sit a little deeper, he’s intelligent enough to carve out his own space. The best example of this was the goal he scored recently against Cagliari.
Initially, he shapes to run across the defender and into the space highlighted by the black arrow. However, Vlahović forces the defender to adjust to cover that run before quickly changing the angle of his run and targeting the space shown by the purple arrow.
Jose Callejon’s cross is perfectly weighted and the Fiorentina No.9 is able to tap home from close range. It looks easy, but his decisions in the build-up are key to this opportunity.
In the same scenario, some strikers drop off into space and offer a simple option. Others attack the space between the centre-backs and hope others make the most of the space left behind by this action. The 6ft3 striker gambles and, in the process of doing so, forces Callejon into playing that pass.
He’s got a bit of everything about him and it’s why he scores so many different goals. The one he netted against Napoli last season when he picked the ball up on the right side of the area and effortlessly curled it home on his favoured left foot really showcased just how unpredictable he can be.
That randomness bleeds into his general game, too.
You’d be forgiven for assuming he’s something of a target man due to his height and physique. While he does put himself about in the air, averaging six duels per 90, the 20-year-old has much more to his game and this is where the aforementioned randomness comes into play. For example, he attempts close to 3.5 dribbles per 90 and, per FBref, he’s averaging 3.2 progressive carries. He won’t just look to link play and he’ll instead be a ball carrier.
Boring and random aren’t usually positives, but they’re the main reasons why Vlahović is one to watch.
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