Can Leicester City sustain a title challenge?
Brendan Rodgers side have made a bright start to the campaign, but are results telling the whole story?
Welcome to the latest edition of the Marginal Pains newsletter. Today, there’s no David so you’re stuck with me.
Sadly, there’s no video analysis in this one either, but do keep your eyes peeled for a new feature next week. We’re focusing on Leicester City and their early season form.
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It must’ve felt like deja vu for Leicester City fans.
The Foxes headed into the international break as the surprise league leaders. Brendan Rodgers’ side had won six of their opening eight matches and in the process racked up emphatic wins against Manchester City (5-2) and Leeds United (4-1). They went into the game against champions Liverpool, not as favourites but with the general feeling being that they could get something against Jurgen Klopp’s patched-up side.
Now, there was a similar sense of hope when the two sides met last year.
Heading into the festive period of 2019, many viewed Leicester as genuine title challengers. Their game against Liverpool on Boxing Day was viewed as a title decider. At the time, the Reds had a ten-point lead but had just returned from the Club World Cup. All that travel was supposed to put them at a disadvantage.
However, it was Leicester who suffered a humbling 4-0 defeat on the night. That scoreline could’ve been equalled at Anfield but wayward finishing by the hosts kept it to just 3-0. But again, it was a pretty one-sided game and a bit of a wake-up call for Rodgers’ side.
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It’ll be interesting to see how they react after the loss. Following the defeat last season, Leicester won just six of their next 19 matches in the English top-flight having won 12 of their opening 19 games.
After a bright start to this campaign, the real test is whether or not the Foxes can remain at this level for the remainder of the season. Is their form sustainable? The numbers don’t tend to suggest so.
The above graphic, taken from the newsletter looking at Aston Villa’s early-season form, looks at shot data for all Premier League sides. Leicester place in the same quartet as the bottom three, along with Arsenal (21th), Newcastle United (15th) and Crystal Palace (11th). When the newsletter was published, they were averaging a little over eight shots on a per 90 basis and landing close to four of those on target.
By comparison, reigning champions Liverpool are taking north of 16 shots and hitting the target with over five per 90. The argument could be that the Reds are wasteful but the skill is managing to carve out so many shooting opportunities.
There’s less reliance on their forwards having to make the most of one chance. Leicester, on the other hand, can’t really afford Jamie Vardy to miss chances as there’s no guarantee he’ll get another. They’re relying on Vardy to run hot for the season.
The 33-year-old is one of the most potent forwards in the Premier League. He’s not a volume player like others and can do a lot of damage in a game, even if he ends up having just two chances. What will be a worry, however, is the fact he’s not even averaging two non-penalty shots per 90 this season. In his seven appearances for the Foxes, he’s taken 16 shots. Of those, six have been penalties.
That isn’t just exclusive to Vardy, either. In total, 10% of Leicester’s shots this season have come via the penalty spot and almost 44% of their goals have been penalties. Per Twenty3, Rodgers’ side ranks 11th in the Premier League for non-dead ball expected goals (NDBxG) and sixth for non-dead ball expected goals against (NDBxGA).
From a defensive point of view, to rank sixth for NDBxGA having played Manchester City at the Etihad, Leeds at Elland Road and Arsenal at the Emirates stands them in good stead. Their undoing could be their struggles going forward. Their NDBxG will be fairly low as they’re not averaging many shots and those they are having tend to be penalties. They shouldn’t be punished for this but penalties, especially this season, are hardly the most reliable of goal avenues. They’re being given out like sweets on Halloween but there’s no continuity to it. They should be viewed as a bonus, not a necessity to win.
Furthermore, Understat highlights their overperformance with their expected points model. This awards points for the expected goals in a match and according to them, Leicester should be on 14.40 points and fourth in the table.
This could all change when James Maddison is starting regularly again. The No.10 has featured in just 389 minutes in the Premier League. Last season, the England international averaged 2.37 shots and 2.14 shot assists meaning he was responsible for 4.5 goal-scoring actions per 90. The Foxes have been without that for the majority of the campaign so far. Cengiz Under is also a bit of a wildcard for Rodgers. During his final season in Rome, the 23-year-old averaged 2.29 shot assists and 2.39 shots. Adding that to the starting XI will see their threat swell.
Right now, that is all theoretical. However, one thing is for sure, if Leicester don’t start to create more high-quality chances in open play, their bubble could well burst and a top-four challenge once again becomes tricky.
