Aston Villa, are they just on a good run, or are they...good?
It's been some start to the season for Villa, but are they just in the midst of a purple patch, or is this good form here to stay?
Hello, all.
David here, ready to talk to you about Aston Villa.
They’ve been good fun to watch in recent weeks, haven’t they? So let’s take a look at whether these relatively good times are here to stay…
It takes some doing to be the surprise package in a season already full of them, yet that’s just what Aston Villa are.
After avoiding relegation on the final day of the season in July, you hoped for their sake that things were set to improve this season. However, to the extent to which they have has come as a surprise to everyone. They’ve already secured five league wins from seven matches and need just four more to match last season’s combined total of nine.
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What’s even more impressive is the calibre of teams they’ve put to the sword across that sequence, with Leicester City, Arsenal and Liverpool all falling victim to Dean Smith’s rampant Villa side.
We know from experience that positive runs like these can sometimes be just as much about good fortune as on the pitch efficiency. Therefore by looking at the underlying numbers, we can normally get a good indication as to whether their fortunes are set to change in the not so distant future.
So what are we seeing in Aston Villa? Well, let’s start with the attack.
This season, Villa are averaging 14.86 shots and six shots on target per 90. As we can see above, that ranks amongst (and better than) most of the elite so far.
But not only are these shots frequent, but they’re also from good locations too. As a result, they currently rank 5th in the division in terms of Non-penalty Expected Goals (NPxG) - this despite playing one game fewer than most.
That accumulated NPxG is currently 11.1, therefore with 16 non-penalty goals, there is a notable level of overperformance in there. Some of this can be attributed to luck, for example with more than one deflected goal in their 7-2 triumphant over Liverpool.
Yet a lot of it is also down to the improved personal within their attack.
Obviously, Jack Grealish continues to be Villa’s own Mr Incredible, scoring goals and averaging over 5.1 shot-creating actions per 90 (SCA90), just like he did in the last season. However, a key difference this season is that he has attacking and creative support alongside him in the form of Ross Barkley who himself is posting an average of 5.8 SCA90 so far.
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Last season, midfielder John McGinn ranked second at Villa for SCA90 with an average of 3.74. Maybe that difference only seems marginal at a glance, but over the course of 38 league games, it amounts to roughly an extra 76 shots on goal(!)
Not only are Villa creating more, but unlike in other seasons, they now have a legitimate goalscorer latching onto the end of these chances created.
Those who watched Ollie Watkins in the Championship will hardly be surprised by the start he has made. Across his previous two seasons at Brentford, he scored a combined 36 league goals from an xG of 30.46, and he has already got six league goals to his name so far this season.
Interestingly, of the three players named above, Watkins, the centre-forward, is averaging the fewest number of shots per 90 - just 2.57.
This could be a hindrance for some forwards, for example, Harry Kane and Mohamed Salah regularly average between three and four shots per 90 in order to secure their standout goal tallies.
However, Watkins is exhibiting himself as such an accurate shooter that just one or two clear cut opportunities per game can often be enough.
Whilst it’s all clicking into gear at the top end of the pitch, it’s important that solid foundations are in place at the other end. This is especially the case for Smith’s side who, despite some improvements after lockdown, still had the 2nd worst defensive record and the worst combined xGA total in the league last season.
So far, Villa have conceded the joint fewest number of goals in the division - nine, although as already pointed out, they’ve played one game fewer than most.
They have conceded the 7th highest number of shots, but do have the 4th lowest xGA per shot average. What this means is that although they have conceded a decent amount of shots, these shots aren’t of great quality which suggests decent defensive work.
Facing a lot of shots is also a consequence of their tactical design, with Smith happy to set his team up to sit deep, forgo possession and invite opponents forward before looking to exploit the spaces in transition.
But even against the better shots at their own goal, the numbers suggest they now have a top goalkeeper in Emiliano Martinez who has the capacity to keep plenty of them out - Martinez 1526 Premier League minutes played 2019/20 + 2020/21: goals conceded 18 vs 23.4 xGA.
Therefore overall, things are looking pretty good for Villa and the early evidence does suggest that their impressive form could be here to stay. They’ve dramatically improved in both boxes over the summer and often, that’s where games are won and lost.
It might be a bit of a stretch to expect them to continue putting reigning champions and top four chasers to the sword each week, but there’s no reason why they can’t secure a top ten finish this season and perhaps even make a push towards a Europa League spot.
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Excellent article, and rather pleasing to see from my (claret and blue) perspective. With my rose tinted spectacles on I'd even go so far as to say that they could 'Leicester' their way into the top 4 this season... if it weren't for their lack of depth behind what is a very good first 11...