Good locations, bad executions - the story of Gabriel Jesus so far
Right time, right place, but wrong choices.
Welcome to the latest Marginal Pains newsletter. It’s Sam here. I’ve realised that today is December 1st and I don’t have an advent calendar. I just know that I’ll go to the shop later and have to settle for a Smarties one or something terrible like that.
Anyway, the topic of discussion today is Gabriel Jesus and why he’s one of the most frustrating strikers in Europe.
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When Gabriel Jesus signed for Manchester City, the writing looked on the wall for Sergio Aguero. At the time, there had been reports that Pep Guardiola wasn’t necessarily happy with the prolific Argentine and that he could be on his way out of the club. The Brazilian arrived in January and made an instant impact, involving himself in four goals in a little over 200 minutes in the Premier League.
However, a metatarsal injury ruled him out for all of March and the majority of April. He played, and scored, upon his return but Aguero had forced his way back into the reckoning by that stage. In fact, the former Atletico Madrid man scored six goals in the seven games Jesus missed in the English top flight.
The following campaign saw Guardiola juggle Aguero and Jesus, even using both in the attack, before eventually settling on the former. The Brazilian’s playing time reduced during the 2018/19 campaign, with the City No.10 cementing himself as the main man in attack, despite heading into his 30s. There was supposed to be a passing of a torch, with Jesus being trusted a little more and Aguero’s minutes being managed a little better. It never happened, though.
Jesus was afforded more opportunities last season due to Aguero’s injuries and his return of 14 goals in 2,026 minutes isn’t a bad return, but there were regular links with big money moves for some of Europe’s elite strikers. That’s still the case.
He’s got time on his side, he’s still only 23, but with the opportunities presented to him in this City side, many expected him to be further along at this stage of his career. He chips in with goals but Jesus is by no means considered to be a reliable goalscorer.
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Per Understat, he has an expected goals (xG) total of almost 58 in the Premier League, but he’s only scored 43 goals. He pops up in the right areas but his finishing isn’t the best, as evidenced in his shot map.
Red markers are missed shots, yellow are shots which have hit the woodwork, blue are saved attempts and purple are attempts which have been blocked. Furthermore, a large number of efforts in or around the six-yard box tend to be headers and they’re notoriously more difficult to score.
A lot of these opportunities in those areas of the pitch are also ones you would class as instinctive. He’s getting a flick on drilled crosses, for example. They’re difficult to truly control yet when looking at the xG total, it is classed as a high-quality chance. When looking at numbers in isolation, those do go against him.
Having said that, though, it’s worth noting that his shot selection isn’t always the best. When scouring through all of his attempts on Wyscout, we noticed a few patterns.
Firstly, Jesus has a knack for hitting shots which are at comfortable heights for goalkeepers. It almost feels as though he’s just trying to hit the target with a powerful effort as opposed to picking out a corner.
The effort against Real Madrid (above) looks like a good one. It forces the keeper into making a smart save and it tests his reactions. But when you strip it back, all Thibaut Courtois really has to do is put his hands up.
In the first shot against Lyon, it’s similar with regards to the keeper not really having to do much. Whereas if Jesus had struck it low, Anthony Lopes might’ve been caught out as he’d initially set himself for an effort int the far corner, which you can see in the still below. It’d be much more difficult for the Lyon No.1 to react to a low effort to his right.
Another thing noted when watching Jesus is that he has a lot of efforts blocked. The majority aren’t defenders lunging in at the very last second, either. The Brazil international seems to square up an opponent and then he just shoots
Unless he’s unnervingly precise, the likelihood of him scoring is very small. Especially when you realise these blocked attempts usually lack any sort of precision and are generally just powerful efforts which are definitely on the rise.
He shows a lack of maturity when in the opposition penalty area. His record is by no means bad, but with a few tweaks, it could be better. Those tweaks could see him succeed Aguero as the man to lead the line for City. He’s already mastered being in the right place at the right time.
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