Diogo Jota's goal threat
and how Liverpool profile forwards
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When it comes to transfers, Liverpool are the best in the business. Their success rate is absurd and their ability to find value for money in what is often a seller’s market is unmatched. Even the way they structure deals sees them eke out the smallest of victories from time to time.
Their latest success story is Diogo Jota. He might be their best capture yet.
The 23-year-old joined from Wolves during the summer transfer window for a reported fee in the region of £41millon. He scored on his debut for the Reds after coming off the bench against Arsenal. In truth, he probably should’ve had a hattrick during that particular cameo.
In the following games, he’s netted winners against Sheffield United and West Ham United while also opening his account in the Champions League. Jota looks right at home in an ever-changing Liverpool attack. It might not be as fluid as fans have come to expect but what makes the No.20 such an ideal fit is he’s always in the right place at the right time. It’s undoubtedly one of the reasons the Premier League champions decided he was the man to fill the role as the fourth attacker. The one fans have yearned for since the departure of Philippe Coutinho.
Melissa Reddy recently revealed that the former Porto man had been on the club’s radar for the past two seasons. You can understand why this was the case. The Reds are famed for their analytical department and their ability to identify players on the cusp of exploding.
While many of the plaudits have been going the way of Raul Jimenez, Adama Traore and Ruben Neves during Wolves’ time in the Premier League, Jota was the one posting the most interesting numbers.
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I’m not blowing my own trumpet, here, but I initially said he’d be a perfect player for Liverpool in May 2019. I was tasked with putting together a list of attackers Jurgen Klopp could potentially bring to Anfield. The brief was to find the next Sadio Mané or Mohamed Salah.
I went about building a profile using metrics I believed to be important. The Reds needed a reliable goal threat whose previous output wasn’t just sustainable, it was scaleable. To narrow down the list, I looked at touches in the opposition box, expected goals, shots and attempted dribbles.
Jota caught the eye, but my concern was he’d only played in the Premier League for one season. One thing I noted at the time was that all of his goals came from within the penalty area and he was frugal with his efforts, taking just ten from outside the box all season.
What made him so ideal was his goals seemed repeatable. He wasn’t as effective last season and seemed to stagnate at Molineux, to an extent.
Still, Marginal Pains’ very own Dave Hughes identified him as a good fit for Liverpool on an episode of Analysing Anfield. His signing was a bit of win for us both in that sense. We do, occasionally, know what we’re talking about.
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What intrigues me most about Jota is that he’s already an intelligent player. It sounds straightforward but so many attackers waste potentially dangerous opportunities by shooting from distance. Patience isn’t just something you develop overnight and the restraint required can be a difficult thing to learn. The perfect example of this is Coutinho. Before Klopp arrived, he was regularly shooting from 40-yards. But during the final six months of his Liverpool career, the Brazilian maestro was popping up in the penalty area with a lot more regularity.
The seven-cap Portugal international has already has that restraint to his game. The graphic below helps add context to this.
Players are less likely to score from outside the penalty area. I realise this isn’t a big revelation and it’s pretty boring, but it’s true. A shot from distance is largely viewed as a waste of possession. Furthermore, a player with lots of goals from distance isn’t necessarily a reliable or sustainable goal threat. You’ll note that Salah and Mané took 33% of their efforts from outside the box two years before their switch to Liverpool. The duo then improved this, with their average dropping to 23% in the year prior to their move to Anfield.
This has since improved, with Mané averaging 17% and Salah averaging 21%. This decrease in efforts from distance has resulted in both players turning into goal machines.
Jota has been consistent since making his debut in the Premier League. Across the two full seasons, 15.5% of his shots have been from 18-yards or further. He’s already got that side to his game without Liverpool needing to tweak it. However, playing for the Reds will likely see him average more than the 2.1 shots he was posting while playing for Wolves. In a nutshell, Jota will be getting a greater number of chances in better areas, and this will result in him being more dangerous. If all goes to plan, that £40million fee will be viewed as a bargain.
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