Conor Coady, defensive lines and Liverpool's Van Dijk conundrum
Systems in football are more important than ever before
Welcome to the first Marginal Pains newsletter. David was busy moving house so I thought I’d take the opportunity to write about Virgil Van Dijk. Sort of.
It’s perhaps the impossible task.
How do you replace the best centre-back in the world? The short answer is that you can’t. But there are ways Liverpool can adapt in order to get by without the services of Virgil van Dijk. Given they went into the 2020/21 campaign a little short in the defensive third anyway after failing to replace Dejan Lovren, a defender would’ve likely been a priority over the next two transfer windows. The injury to the Dutchman might’ve just sped things up a little.
It goes under the radar but centre-backs for the Premier League champions are all-rounders. Many teams give off the impression that ball-players are a necessity in that role and if they’re switched on defensively it is a bonus. Then you have teams that will play a high defensive line regardless of whether their centre-backs are quick.
For Jurgen Klopp’s system to work, the centre-back pairing for the Merseysiders need to tick all three boxes. Recovery pace is essential, they definitely need to be dominant in the air, and they have to be able to defend in one-on-one situations.
Diego Carlos and Dayot Upamacano are two of the popular choices to arrive at Anfield in January. But Conor Coady has a lot of vocal support on social media. Jamie Carragher even joked about it on Monday Night Football.
The former academy player is now an England international. The 27-year-old is the captain of an established Premier League side and he’s in the form of his life. He’s achieved all that since being moved to centre-back. But there’s one big caveat: he’s playing as the central defender in a back three.
There are different requirements and responsibilities associated with it. You can’t just drop them into a normal backline and expect the same results. For example, David Luiz’s best season in England was when Antonio Conte used him as the sweeper in his 3-4-3 system.
Furthermore, Wolves and Liverpool couldn’t be more different in their approaches. The Reds, per Wyscout, allowed 10 passes per defensive action (PPDA) last season. Only Manchester City (9.85) and Southampton (8.06) put more pressure on the opposition. Nuno Espírito Santo’s men, on the other hand, ranked dead last in this metric, allowing the opposition 26.09 passes. Wolves sit deep and only really engage the opposition when they cross the halfway line.
Coady has two centre-backs either side of him and two sitting midfielders ahead of him, as you can see in the still above. As a result, he’s having to defend very little space. As you can see in the graphic below, courtesy of Twenty3.Sport, in a Liverpool system, centre-backs often have to cover an entire half, and then some.
It’s a big ask but Klopp’s centre-backs have the characteristics and traits to do it. The Reds are regularly able to pin the opposition in their own half due to van Dijk’s aerial prowess. On average, he wins 75% of his aerial duels. Dejan Lovren averaged around 70% last season while Joel Matip was near the 80% mark. Joe Gomez was the weak link at 63% but, for context, that average isn’t too far off what Harry Maguire was winning for Manchester United.
Marginal Pains is brought to you in partnership with MANSCAPED™, the very best out there in terms of men’s below-the-waist grooming. MANSCAPED has created precision-engineered tools for your family jewels to make sure you have an unrivalled grooming experience.
As a Marginal Pains reader, you can get 20% Off and Free Shipping with the code MARGINAL20 at Manscaped.com.
If you want to support us, then support them - Your balls will thank you™
Since the start of the 2019/20 campaign, Coady has won just 57% of his duels in the Premier League and he’s only competing for 1.4 on a per 90 basis. That average and the frequency he’s competing in aerial battles isn’t good enough for a Liverpool centre-back. Now, the latter stat might be down to the system he’s being used in. Just because he’s not competing for more doesn’t mean he wouldn’t increase that in a different team.
But in England’s recent match against Wales, Coady lost an aerial duel against 5ft 11ins Tyler Roberts and it allowed the visitors to get a shot off at goal after the Leeds United man picked up the second ball.
There’s no way van Dijk loses such a battle. It’s exactly the sort of situation Liverpool would regularly find themselves in before they parted with £75million to remove that weakness from their game. A punt forward wouldn’t be dealt with and the Reds would go from pressing up high to having to get numbers back to stop a counter. It was one of the reasons for heavy metal football.
Another overlooked trait of van Dijk’s is his ability in possession. Mikel Arteta recently praised his use of the ball when picking passes out from deep areas but the Liverpool No.4 often attempts the most passes in a match. Seeing that amount of the ball puts players on the spot. At Wolves, Coady averages 40 passes per 90, the former Celtic man attempts near double that (75). The more of the ball a player sees, the more their technique and use of it is criticised.
Ultimately, a move for Coady would not make sense and that’s before taking into account what it’d cost to convince Wolves to part with their captain.
You’ve heard of pass the pod, right? Well, let’s do pass the article. If you know someone who might like this, please do share.
Subscribe now and you won’t even have to search for these articles online, they’ll just appear in your inbox. Direct all complaints the way of @DAHughes_ on Twitter.
I am a romantic and there are good arguments in favour: he is much more vocal than any of Liverpool's current cbs so could replace Van Dijk's ability to organise the defence, and as a Liverpool youth player he might be happier than most to be nominally fourth choice when everyone is fit.
I do think you're right though, the fact he plays in a low-lying back three is a huge issue. He might have the recovery skills to make up for his weakness in the air (and he is a good passer) but it's too much of a gamble given we haven't seen evidence he can play in Liverpool's style. At 27 he would probably find it difficult to retrain and it would take a few months minimum, by which time Van Dijk is (hopefully!) back anyway.
I like Ben White more for his youth and experience in Bielsa's style, despite his lack of aerial ability. I don't know much about Upamecano at Leipzig. Koulibaly would be the dream signing based on his performances against us but I don't think it's realistic given his age.